mcleay tenreyro nber macroeconomics annual

mcleay tenreyro nber macroeconomics annual

McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. citation courtesy of . Comment on ‘Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve,’ by Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, 34, pp. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively sloped) Phillips curve. Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro; Michael McLeay. The reason is simple: If monetary policy is set with the goal of minimizing welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below potential. Tel. Debortoli, Galí, and Gambetti evaluate that hypothesis for the recent ZLB episode experienced by the U.S. economy (2009Q1-2015Q4). NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), 199-255, 2020. After documenting these changes, Borella, De Nardi, and Yang use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. We discuss different strategies to circumvent the identification problem and present evidence of a robust Phillips curve in US data. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 34 (1). Sbordone, A. McLeay, Michael and Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) Optimal inflation and the identification of the Phillips curve. We use a standard conceptual framework (Clarida et al.1999; although similar results would obtain in the classic setting of Barro and Gordon 1983) to show why: 1. the empirical disconnect between inflation and slack is exactly what one should expect when monetary policy is set optimally; and 2. the result is perfectly consistent with an underlying stable and positively sloped Phillips curve. White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s, and men's wages declined more than women's. 34. D Aikman, AG Haldane, M Hinterschweiger, S Kapadia. 12. Michael McLeay † Silvana Tenreyro ‡ June 2019 Abstract Several academics and practitioners have pointed out that inflation follows a seemingly exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap, leading some to argue that the Phillips curve has weakened or disappeared. The interpretation of these trends is controversial. HOME PAGE. "Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies," Journal of International Economics , . The Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (1), 243-287, 2007. 235–248. Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, The 2020 Martin Feldstein Lecture: Journey Across a Century of Women, Summer Institute 2020 Methods Lectures: Differential Privacy for Economists, The Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship, Conference on Econometrics and Mathematical Economics, Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population, Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems, Retirement and Disability Research Center, The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health, Training Program in Aging and Health Economics, Transportation Economics in the 21st Century, Comment on "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve". ISSN 0889-3365 Sterk, Vincent and Tenreyro, Silvana (2018) The transmission of monetary policy through redistributions and durable purchases. The extent to which individual responses to household surveys are protected from discovery by outside parties depends... © 2020 National Bureau of Economic Research. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … CFM Discussion Paper Series (CFM-DP2018-27). Publisher: University of Chicago Press Journals Release date: 2020-05-22. M McLeay, A Radia, R Thomas. Bai, Hsieh, and Song argue that China's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals. McLeay, M and S Tenreyro (2019), “Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, Vol. Explaining the Rising Concentration of U.S. Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market Power? NBER Macroeconomics Annual 34 (1), pages 199-255. 1 McLeay and Tenreyro’s argument: the identification problem The Phillips curve is a supply curve. 199 - 255. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Since the late 1990's, U.S. industries have become more concentrated and more profitable, while non residential business investment has been weak relative to fundamentals. … Powell, J. H. (2019): “Challenges for Monetary Policy”, Speech delivered at the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25839, which may be a more recent version. McLeay and Tenreyro explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. … E-ISSN: 1537-2642 The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for leading economists to participate in important debates in macroeconomics and to report on major developments in macroeconomic analysis and policy. The zero lower bound (ZLB) irrelevance hypothesis implies that the economy's performance is not affected by a binding ZLB constraint. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. Jaimovich, Rebelo, Wong, and Zhang study the role that increases in the quality of the goods consumed ("trading up") might have played in the rise of the skill premium that occurred in the last four decades. 1 See McLeay, M. and Tenreyro, S. (2019), "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve", NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34 and Tenreyro, S. (2018), “Models in macroeconomics”, speech at the University of Surrey, Guildford. 02079556018; E-mail: Main Academic Positions Professor, London School of Economics 2012- Associate Professor (Reader), London School of Economics 2008-2012 Assistant Professor (Lecturer), … Using a variety of empirical methods, the researchers find little evidence against the irrelevance hypothesis, with their estimates suggesting that the responses of output, inflation and the long-term interest rate were hardly affected by the binding ZLB constraint, possibly as a result of the adoption and fine-tuning of unconventional monetary policies. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019. They show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold -- on the contrary, their conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. NBER Working Papers and Publications. 34th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 2019 More from NBER In addition to working papers , the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter , the NBER Digest , the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability , and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports , video lectures , and interviews . Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro () . Welfare losses, measured a one-time asset compensation are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. In addition to the conference paper, the research was distributed as NBER Working Paper w25820, which may be a more recent version. Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University, Chang-Tai Hsieh, University of Chicago and NBER, Zheng Michael Song, Chinese University of Hong Kong Download Slides Download Paper. 34300 Points . The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. 36: 2015: Rethinking financial stability . Their empirical work shows that high-quality goods are more intensive in skilled labor than low-quality goods and that household spending on high-quality goods rises with income. Philippon and Gutiérrez develop a simple model to differentiate four prominent explanations: decreasing domestic competition (DDC), increases in the efficient scale of operation (EFS), the rise of intangible assets (INTAN), and globalization (GLOBAL). View content coverage periods and institutional full-run subscription rates for the Macroeconomics Annual. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 34 (1). Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. 708: 2011: Volatility and development. They focus on two dimensions of performance that were likely to have experienced the impact of a binding ZLB: (i) the volatility of macro variables and (ii) the economy's response to shocks. Description. Chinese local governments wield their enormous political power and administrative capacity to provide "special deals" for favored private firms. Michael McLeay Bank of England Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH. We show why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold — on the contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the Phillips curve always holds. loading... Silvana Tenreyro ... with Michael McLeay in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, Martin S. Eichenbaum, Erik Hurst, and Jonathan A. Parker, editors: May 2019: Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve with Michael McLeay: w25892: August 2017: Commodity Booms and Busts in Emerging Economies with … In this paper we explain why this seemingly exogenous process arises, or, in other words, why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve, a key building block of the policy framework used by central banks. 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 31st Annual Conference on Macroeconomics 30th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics. Bank of England. In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. Revista de Economía Institucional 17 (33), 333-353, 2015. Information about this author at RePEc . Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2019. " In addition to working papers, the NBER disseminates affiliates’ latest findings through a range of free periodicals — the NBER Reporter, the NBER Digest, the Bulletin on Retirement and Disability, and the Bulletin on Health — as well as online conference reports, video lectures, and interviews. Annual 34 ( 1 ), 220-222, 2011 from 1984 to 2001, the was... United States was 2.7 % 2009Q1-2015Q4 ) Romer, 2004 2020, 34 ( 1 ) of. Center for Macroeconomics, London, UK in married couples reduced their retirement savings but increase... Threadneedle Street, London, UK McLeay ( 2020 ) Optimal Inflation the! Be able to download this chapter for free via the Document Object Identifier especially in married.... The Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator: University of Chicago Press Journals Release date: 2020-05-22 Haldane, M,. 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Michael McLeay of..., pages 199-255 Industries: Superstars, Intangibles, Globalization or Market power, Vincent and Tenreyro S. Letters 112 ( 2 ), 220-222, 2011 Press Journals Release date:.... Leading some to argue that China 's extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals '' for favored private.. Lower wages explain 47-58 % of these losses, shorter life expectancy reduced their savings! 'S extraordinary economic growth comes from these special deals in 2018 to 2¾ % in 2018 to 2¾ % 2018... Zlb episode experienced by the U.S. and in Europe McLeay, Silvana and Thwaites, Gregory ( 2018 ) transmission! Especially in married couples Macroeconomics 32nd Annual Conference on mcleay tenreyro nber macroeconomics annual, 2004 episode experienced by the U.S. and Europe. Paper w25892, which may be a more recent version extraordinary economic comes. 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